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There’s a moment after we fill out our brackets where we convince ourselves that we have the perfect one, despite the odds of that being the case hovering around 1 in 128 billion. Guessing just 32 games correctly without using data or past knowledge is the equivalent of flipping a coin 32 times and always landing heads–or 1 in 4,294,967,296.
That, according to For the Win, is 15 times harder than winning the lottery with one ticket.
Odds are, with big bad Arizona getting waxed by Buffalo yesterday, your bracket is about as solid as baby’s stool. I, for one, am fucked. But, with a lot of basketball yet to be played, I’m far from the only one whose bracket is busted. Check out this insane stat:
Only 0.04% of Tournament Challenge brackets are still perfect through Thursday.
Check to see if you're one of the fortunate few at https://t.co/dOBTvSqV9l. pic.twitter.com/EsP8Yjuy2P
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) March 16, 2018
Hey, but it’s just as difficult to be perfect as it is to be the opposite. Consistency is a near impossible endeavor.
18 brackets went 0/16 today. pic.twitter.com/yHMJQZWJAI
— ESPN Fantasy Sports (@ESPNFantasy) March 16, 2018
World famous investor Warren Buffet knows how astronomical the odds are, which is precisely why he offers insane payouts to his Berkshire Hathaway employees for flawless brackets. This year, Buffett is offering $1 million a year for life if they correctly guess which teams make it to the Sweet 16.
For context, last year, of the 18.8 million brackets filled out on ESPN, only 18 people picked a perfect Sweet 16.
Best of luck to everyone on expectations never meeting reality.
[h/t For the Win]